Abbas Abdi on Mousavi’s 17th Statement: Opportunities are Vanishing like Clouds

by Abbas Abdi
source: ayande
Date: Thursday, January 7, 2010

Mr. Mousavi’s last statement will be a memorable statement in Iranian politics. In my opinion it provides the authorities with a good opportunity to change their policy of elimination and extremism. The extremist authorities should take note that the status quo within Iranian society today requires rebuilding trust towards government. They shouldn’t be fooled with the demonstrations after Ashura. The organizers of that event know better than anyone how much effort and resources they had to put into this event in order to gather those people and yet not all the participants were there willingly and voluntarily and not all of them were in agreement with government actions. Sooner or later the Iranian government will have to face some serious challenges. Whether it be inforeign policy or the nuclear issue or economics , disagreement between people in the powers that be, is the challenge that government will have to face sooner or later. If the government doesn’t deal with the existing, dire problem of the ever growing gap between it and the people, this gap will be intensified by those three challenges and will put the government in an unimaginable crisis. Mr. Mousavi’s statement not only has provided the opportunity for the authorities to remedy this gap, but also minimizes the risk of the three major challenges and aids the system in dealing with them. The Iranian government should start to regain the people’s trust in order to be able to face increasing international pressure; otherwise the government has to either confront the other countries or bow to pressure both of which has consequences for the nation.
It would be a big mistake if the extremists consider Mr. Mousavi’s statement as a retreat and use it to justify their behaviour in the past. In my opinion they are trying to consider it as a retreat to make Mr. Mousavi react passively and change his attitude, which I am sure, is not going to happen. The problem that I see with the authorities is that those among them, who are more rational and pay attention to the country’s interests and care about the revolution, are acting passively. This passivity might be the result of what happened after the 12th of June – the day of the election. However, now that Mr. Mousavi has released this statement, they have the best opportunity to set aside this indifference and prevent those who don’t care about the country’s interests and the revolution from creating a bigger catastrophe. Although I am quite certain that the extremists will not sit quietly – they are like the internal, sharp blades of the scissors which use the external contact blade [the moderates] to cut.
Mr. Mousavi’s proposals are public demands. The suggestions are typical processes which guarantee a safer blueprint for moving forward, rather than specific diagnoses. Those who are in power could start performing the parts of proposals that are relevant to them, by changing current policies.
Not to forget, the suggestions mentioned by Mr. Mousavi, have been raised in conditions where he has a much stronger standing than before and for this, his suggestions should be noted carefully. These proposals not only do not reduce his followers, but also will prevent some past movement’s mistakes and will cause a more powerful structure for the (green) movement.
This is a good opportunity for the government to better interact with him and other critics and if they do not, as Imam Ali [the first Shi’a Imam] said: “opportunities can get easily lost like clouds”
Therefore, the ruling elite must be prudent and not allow that the destiny of the country to be determined in alien gatherings formed on hatred and spite.

During the past six months, the political prestige of the ruling establishment has been extremely damaged.. This is not a situation that can be continued and its compensation will take years.

Bear in mind that the past 50 years experience has shown that a political group can not eliminate others, and if it does not accept the principles of an honorable competition, sooner or later it will suffer an elusive fate and will only strengthen its opposition.
Although I am not confident that the opponents will come out with a proper and positive response to Mr. Mousavi’s statement, I’m not disappointed and think that there is a more of a chance for a positive response than a negative one.